GO / NO-GO

Decision-Making and Conflict Resolution

Michael Round

June 3, 2009

It's months after that fateful day - December 7, 1941.  A day that will live in infamy.  Post Pearl Harbor saw many more Japanese victories in the Pacific.

America saw little to cheer about.

Until a plan launched in mid-April, 1942.

The US was to bomb the Japanese mainland.  But how?  Carrier aircraft did not have the ability to fly long distances.  It would take mid-range bombers to succeed.  But B-25s had never taken off from a carrier deck. 

And where would they land once they dropped their payload?  They were going to continue flying on the China, landing in friendly areas.

But surprise was key.

And the two carriers were discovered, April 18, 1942, about 8 A.M., more than 600 miles off the Japanese coast.  Japanese patrol boats discovered the carriers, and sent off radio signals.

Admiral Halsey was immediately hit with a dilemma:

At this point, I was going to explore the choice Halsey made, but something struck me.  Merely writing this down, the problem is obvious (to me).

Why are detected carriers at risk?

The Japanese patrol boats radioed in the presence of the US Pacific fleet.   How could the element of surprise be maintained?

The latter got me thinking:  an ordinary carrier cruising at 20 knots carries, traditionally, planes with limited range.  The Japanese must have believed they had several hours before an attack was imminent.

This made sense to me until I thought of RADAR.  Even if this was the case, RADAR would pick up the incoming B-25s, and the Japanese fighters could get airborne quickly.

In other words, in trying to understand why Halsey did what he did, I realized I've got no idea the context of the decision!

When I merely read of the raid in "The Battle of Midway" and browsed over the words, it made sense to me.  The conflict was clear.

However, in merely writing things down, I realize I don't know a whole lot - and these things I'm reading I thought clear really aren't clear at all!

I've visited at least 10 sites today in search of an answer to the question:  "We've been detected.  The alarm has been sent in.  We must launch now because _____________".

Can anybody help me?